Excise tax will disadvantage budget beer more that craft beer.
Here is the explanation from a recent email discussion I had with economist Eric Crampton
"Let's suppose excise taxes double. A bottle of mass market beer that currently sells for $1 including $0.40 in tax would ramp up to $1.40 (assuming full pass through for simplicity for now) while a bottle of craft beer that sells for $3 including $0.40 in tax and whatever in existing margin would ramp up to $3.40 plus excess margin: $3.54. I'm there assuming that the retailer charges an extra 35% on the wholesale price increase of $0.40. Excise tax on both beers is $0.80 but the craft beer is charged an extra total of $0.28 in margin: effectively, $1.08 ($0.54 of pre-hike, $0.54 post hike). Ok, I can buy that.
Now here's the part that I'm still less convinced about. Comparing the before-hike and after-hike prices, the mass market beer has increased in price by 40% while the craft beer has increased in price by 18%, even including all of the markups (and assuming zero excess markups on the mass market beer)."
Bottomline the cheapest beers are the most disadvantaged.